The sunk cost trap

We often pour time, money, and energy into something and, even when there is no real result, we cannot walk away because ‘so much has already been invested’. This is a classic cognitive trap that shows up everywhere: a dead-end job, a failed startup, a relationship, and much more.

How do you get out of this trap and objectively assess sunk cost?

There are no simple answers, but there is one powerful question that can help:

- If I were starting from zero today, would I choose to do this?

You can answer this emotionally, but you can also push yourself toward a sober view of reality by checking yourself against a short list. If you tick most of these, it is more rational to continue than to give up:

1. Conditions are changing and new information is appearing, not just hope.

2. There is measurable progress.

3. The cost of continuing is acceptable (and not only financially).

4. You are choosing this voluntarily, not out of despair or external pressure.

5. The process aligns with your plans.

Thinking about all this brought me to some sobering conclusions. Not about my projects or even my personal life, but about something we rarely examine in this way: my decision to keep waiting for a residence permit in Portugal.

A bit of context: I have been living in Portugal for almost three years. I still do not have a residence permit and there is no progress in sight. It has been more than a year since biometrics. My investment in this country is huge: financial (income tax, social contributions, a fairly high cost of living) and emotional (a social rhythm and culture that do not really fit me).

When I walked through the checklist, I came to what is probably the only honest conclusion: sometimes the most mature and responsible decision is to quit rather than push on.

Now I am planning my exit strategy from a failed ‘startup’ called ‘Portugal’. I do not have many options, unfortunately, but continuing this kind of ‘life’ is clearly not what will help me preserve myself.